INDIA Alliance: Is it working or failing? An analysis

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is a political coalition formed by 28 opposition parties in India, spearheaded by the Indian National Congress (INC). Established in July 2023, the alliance’s primary objective is to challenge the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming 2024 general elections. The coalition claims to champion the interests of ordinary citizens, farmers, minorities, youth, and women, pledging to reinstate democratic values, secularism, and federalism in the country.

But is the INDIA alliance making headway or struggling? How effective is it in countering the BJP’s dominance and popularity? This article delves into the strengths and weaknesses of the coalition while also drawing comparisons with previous opposition alliances in Indian political history.

Strengths of the INDIA alliance

The INDIA alliance boasts several strengths that can bolster its electoral prospects against the BJP:

1. Diversity and Representation: This coalition is a diverse amalgamation of 28 parties from various regions with differing ideologies and social demographics. It encompasses national and regional parties like the INC, Trinamool Congress (TMC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Shiv Sena (UBT), Samajwadi Party (S.P.), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and others. Moreover, it features representation from various castes, religions, and genders, aiming to reflect India’s pluralistic makeup and amplify the voices of marginalized communities.

2. Capitalizing on Anti-Incumbency and Discontent: The INDIA alliance aims to leverage the anti-incumbency factor and public dissatisfaction with the BJP government. The coalition alleges that the BJP has mishandled the economy, mismanaged the COVID-19 pandemic, undermined democratic institutions, violated human rights, promoted communalism, and neglected the farmers’ protests. By offering an alternative vision for India’s development and welfare, the alliance seeks to address these concerns.

3. Charismatic Leadership: The INDIA alliance boasts charismatic and popular leaders capable of attracting voters and rallying support. Figures like Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Uddhav Thackeray, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, M.K. Stalin, and others possess a robust regional influence and governance experience. They also have a mass appeal that can challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image as a strong and decisive leader.

Weaknesses of the INDIA alliance

The INDIA alliance must address several shortcomings to enhance its chances of victory in the 2024 elections:

1. Lack of Cohesion and Coordination: The coalition is a loose alliance of diverse parties, often with conflicting interests. It requires a clear structure, strategy, and agenda. The coalition must address issues like seat-sharing, leadership selection, and policy formulation. It has not announced its prime ministerial candidate or a joint minimum program. Reports of disagreements and rifts among some alliance partners, such as Akhilesh Yadav’s dispute with Congress over seat-sharing in Madhya Pradesh, pose challenges. The coalition also faces competition from other opposition parties that are not part of it.

2. Credibility and Trust: The INDIA alliance needs to build more credibility and trust among specific segments of the electorate. Some voters view the coalition as opportunistic and power-hungry, questioning its ability to provide stable and effective governance if it comes to power. They are still determining the alliance’s capacity to fulfill its promises and actualize its vision. Additionally, some voters have reservations about confident alliance leaders due to their records or controversies.

3. Innovation and Appeal: The INDIA alliance requires a more innovative and appealing campaign and communication strategy. It relies heavily on criticizing the BJP and Modi rather than presenting a positive and constructive alternative. The coalition must connect with the aspirations of new and young voters who seek dynamic leadership. An active presence on social media and digital platforms is crucial, as the BJP holds an advantage. Resource mobilization and outreach also need improvement to match the BJP’s well-organized and well-funded machinery.

Comparison with Previous Opposition Alliances

The INDIA alliance is not the first attempt by opposition parties to form a united front against the ruling party in India’s political history. Several past partnerships have experienced varying degrees of success:

1. Janata Party (1977): Formed to oppose the Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi in 1975, the Janata Party won the 1977 general elections, marking the first non-Congress government in India’s history. However, internal conflicts and ideological differences led to its eventual collapse in 1980.

2. National Front (1989): The National Front won the 1989 general elections with support from the Left Front and the BJP. It formed a minority government led by V.P. Singh but faced instability and internal dissent, ultimately losing power in 1990.

3. United Front (1996): Winning the 1996 elections, the United Front formed two consecutive governments but needed help with cohesion among its partners. It lost power in 1998 when Congress withdrew support over corruption charges.

4. Third Front (1998): The Third Front failed to win power in the 1998 elections, securing only 102 seats and remaining a weak opposition force in Parliament.

5. United Progressive Alliance (2004): The UPA formed a government in 2004 and won again in 2009, making it one of India’s most successful opposition alliances. However, it faced a significant defeat in 2014.

The success or failure of the INDIA alliance hinges on its ability to resolve internal issues, provide a convincing alternative, appeal to diverse voter segments, and perform well in state elections. It also depends on how the BJP responds to these challenges and addresses its concerns. This experiment in Indian politics will significantly shape the nation’s future and democracy, determining whether the coalition can effectively challenge the BJP or become another unrealized endeavour.